The Lindy effect

The Lindy effect is a theory that says the future life expectancy of something is proportional to its current age. In other words, the longer something has been around, the longer you can expect it to survive in the future.

A blog post written today is less likely to outlive the Bible.

A one-year-old startup is unlikely to beat Berkshire Hathaway.

The Lindy effect is a powerful concept that can help you avoid recency bias. It was originally known as Lindy's Law, which Albert Goldman coined in 1964. Goldman named it after Lindy's delicatessen in New York, where comedians informally theorized about the professional life expectancy of comedians. Since then, mathematicians and statisticians like Benoit Mandelbrot and Nasim Talib have further explored the concept.

The Lindy effect only applies to non-perishable items—those things that do not have an unavoidable expiration date. Humans are perishable, so the Lindy effect does not apply to human lifespans. Each additional day of life implies a longer life expectancy for non-perishable items. Each additional day of life suggests a shorter life expectancy for perishable items.

Newer does not always equal better. In fact, older is often better. Longevity implies resistance to change, obsolescence, competition, and thus odds of continued survival into the future.

Have thoughts on this topic? I'd love to hear from you! I'm @RickLindquist on Twitter.